SE Palmeiras scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SE Palmeiras 51.3% · Draw 24.7% · SC Internacional 24.0% Why SE Palmeiras is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1571) is +90 over SC Internacional (1481); medium confidence. Recent: SE Palmeiras 6W-2D-2L · SC Internacional 2W-3D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SE Palmeiras +1.3, SC Internacional -0.3. Form depth SE Palmeiras: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 4/5 on the road). SC Internacional: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (SE Palmeiras 1.9, SC Internacional 1.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — SE Palmeiras 0W, 2D, SC Internacional 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-3, 4-1, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 57.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 51.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.