CR Vasco da Gama scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CR Vasco da Gama 45.1% · Draw 26.6% · Mirassol FC 28.3% Why CR Vasco da Gama is favoured Mirassol FC's Elo (1504) is +45 over CR Vasco da Gama (1459); low confidence. Recent: CR Vasco da Gama 2W-2D-6L · Mirassol FC 6W-1D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CR Vasco da Gama -0.8, Mirassol FC +0.4. Form depth CR Vasco da Gama: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Mirassol FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (5/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). CR Vasco da Gama on a 4-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (CR Vasco da Gama 0.9, Mirassol FC 1.5) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Mirassol FC has a stronger recent record (60% vs 20%) — model favours CR Vasco da Gama on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 46.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.