CA Paranaense scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Paranaense 50.6% · Draw 25.2% · SC Internacional 24.3% Why CA Paranaense is favoured CA Paranaense's Elo (1520) is +28 over SC Internacional (1493); low confidence. Recent: CA Paranaense 5W-2D-3L · SC Internacional 3W-3D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CA Paranaense +0.4, SC Internacional +0.0. Form depth CA Paranaense: avg 1.2 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). SC Internacional: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). CA Paranaense on a 3-match winning streak. SC Internacional on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (CA Paranaense 1.3, SC Internacional 1.1) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — CA Paranaense 0W, 3D, SC Internacional 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 2-2, 1-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.