Mirassol FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Mirassol FC 44.9% · Draw 25.7% · Grêmio FBPA 29.4% Why Mirassol FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1494 vs 1485) — winner depends on context. Recent: Mirassol FC 5W-1D-4L · Grêmio FBPA 2W-4D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Mirassol FC +0.2, Grêmio FBPA -0.4. Form depth Mirassol FC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Grêmio FBPA: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Mirassol FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~1.9 total goals (Mirassol FC 1.1, Grêmio FBPA 0.8) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.