SC Internacional scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Internacional 51.7% · Draw 25.8% · Cruzeiro EC 22.5% Why SC Internacional is favoured Elo essentially level (1503 vs 1509) — winner depends on context. Recent: SC Internacional 3W-4D-3L · Cruzeiro EC 5W-4D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SC Internacional +0.1, Cruzeiro EC +0.6. Form depth SC Internacional: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Cruzeiro EC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). SC Internacional on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (SC Internacional 1.1, Cruzeiro EC 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Cruzeiro EC has a stronger recent record (50% vs 30%) — model favours SC Internacional on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — SC Internacional 0W, 3D, Cruzeiro EC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 3-0, 0-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.