CA Mineiro scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Mineiro 51.8% · Draw 25.6% · EC Bahia 22.6% Why CA Mineiro is favoured CA Mineiro's Elo (1527) is +13 over EC Bahia (1514); low confidence. Recent: CA Mineiro 5W-1D-4L · EC Bahia 3W-3D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CA Mineiro +0.2, EC Bahia -0.1. Form depth CA Mineiro: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). EC Bahia: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). EC Bahia on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (CA Mineiro 1.5, EC Bahia 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CA Mineiro 0W, 2D, EC Bahia 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-0, 2-1, 3-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.