Santos FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Santos FC 46.2% · Draw 25.5% · EC Vitória 28.3% Why Santos FC is favoured EC Vitória's Elo (1520) is +15 over Santos FC (1505); low confidence. Recent: Santos FC 3W-3D-4L · EC Vitória 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Santos FC -0.2, EC Vitória +0.1. Form depth Santos FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). EC Vitória: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Santos FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (Santos FC 1.3, EC Vitória 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Santos FC 0W, 1D, EC Vitória 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 0-1, 0-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.