CR Vasco da Gama scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CR Vasco da Gama 47.9% · Draw 25.4% · RB Bragantino 26.7% Why CR Vasco da Gama is favoured RB Bragantino's Elo (1511) is +20 over CR Vasco da Gama (1490); low confidence. Recent: CR Vasco da Gama 4W-3D-3L · RB Bragantino 5W-0D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CR Vasco da Gama -0.1, RB Bragantino +0.2. Form depth CR Vasco da Gama: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). RB Bragantino: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (CR Vasco da Gama 1.3, RB Bragantino 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — CR Vasco da Gama 0W, 3D, RB Bragantino 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-3, 0-2, 2-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.