Mirassol FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Mirassol FC 48.3% · Draw 26.0% · Fluminense FC 25.7% Why Mirassol FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1505 vs 1506) — winner depends on context. Recent: Mirassol FC 5W-1D-4L · Fluminense FC 4W-2D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Mirassol FC +0.1, Fluminense FC -0.2. Form depth Mirassol FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Fluminense FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Fluminense FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Mirassol FC 1.5, Fluminense FC 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context Mirassol FC has 1 more day of rest (Mirassol FC 41d, Fluminense FC 40d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.