Mirassol FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Mirassol FC 45.0% · Draw 25.4% · Chapecoense AF 29.6% Why Mirassol FC is favoured Mirassol FC's Elo (1510) is +20 over Chapecoense AF (1490); low confidence. Recent: Mirassol FC 5W-0D-5L · Chapecoense AF 0W-3D-7L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Mirassol FC +0.1, Chapecoense AF -1.5. Form depth Mirassol FC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Chapecoense AF: avg 0.5 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Mirassol FC on a 3-match winning streak. Chapecoense AF on a 4-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (Mirassol FC 1.6, Chapecoense AF 0.8) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context Chapecoense AF has 20 more days of rest (Mirassol FC 38d, Chapecoense AF 58d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.