Botafogo FR scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Botafogo FR 47.8% · Draw 25.8% · EC Vitória 26.4% Why Botafogo FR is favoured Elo essentially level (1506 vs 1513) — winner depends on context. Recent: Botafogo FR 4W-4D-2L · EC Vitória 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Botafogo FR +0.5, EC Vitória +0.2. Form depth Botafogo FR: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). EC Vitória: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Botafogo FR 1.5, EC Vitória 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Botafogo FR 0W, 5D, EC Vitória 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 0-0, 1-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.