RCD Espanyol de Barcelona scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 41.5% · Draw 25.3% · Real Sociedad de Fútbol 33.3% Why RCD Espanyol de Barcelona is favoured Real Sociedad de Fútbol's Elo (1482) is +25 over RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (1458); high confidence. Recent: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2W-2D-6L · Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2W-4D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona -0.6, Real Sociedad de Fútbol -0.1. Form depth RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Real Sociedad de Fútbol: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). RCD Espanyol de Barcelona on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1.4, Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0W, 1D, Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 2-1, 0-1.