Eintracht Frankfurt scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Eintracht Frankfurt 37.6% · Draw 23.7% · VfB Stuttgart 38.6% Why VfB Stuttgart is favoured VfB Stuttgart's Elo (1609) is +76 over Eintracht Frankfurt (1533); high confidence. Recent: Eintracht Frankfurt 3W-3D-4L · VfB Stuttgart 5W-3D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Eintracht Frankfurt -0.1, VfB Stuttgart +1.0. Form depth Eintracht Frankfurt: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). VfB Stuttgart: avg 2.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Eintracht Frankfurt on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Eintracht Frankfurt 1.4, VfB Stuttgart 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Eintracht Frankfurt 0W, 2D, VfB Stuttgart 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-2, 1-0, 2-3.