| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3MODE | 8.3% | 12.05 | ||
| 1–2 | 8.1% | 12.39 | ||
| 0–3 | 6.5% | 15.28 | ||
| 1–4 | 6.4% | 15.61 | ||
| 0–2 | 6.4% | 15.72 | ||
| 2–3 | 5.3% | 18.99 | ||
| 1–1 | 5.2% | 19.13 | ||
| 2–2 | 5.1% | 19.54 |
NAC Breda scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 9.5% | 8.8% | +7% | 10.56 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 10.1% | 10.4% | -3% | 9.89 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 45.8% | 49.8% | -8% | 2.18 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 62.1% | 58.7% | +6% | 1.61 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities NAC Breda 44.8% · Draw 25.6% · SC Heerenveen 29.6% Why NAC Breda is favoured Recent: NAC Breda 2W-3D-5L · SC Heerenveen 7W-1D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: NAC Breda -1.2, SC Heerenveen +0.8. Form depth NAC Breda: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). SC Heerenveen: avg 2.2 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (5/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). NAC Breda on a 2-match losing streak. SC Heerenveen on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (NAC Breda 1.0, SC Heerenveen 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments SC Heerenveen has a stronger recent record (70% vs 20%) — model favours NAC Breda on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — NAC Breda 0W, 2D, SC Heerenveen 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-3, 2-4, 4-0.