FC Groningen scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Groningen 45.3% · Draw 25.7% · NEC 29.0% Why FC Groningen is favoured NEC's Elo (1500) is +10 over FC Groningen (1490); low confidence. Recent: FC Groningen 3W-2D-5L · NEC 3W-6D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: FC Groningen +0.1, NEC +0.5. Form depth FC Groningen: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). NEC: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). FC Groningen on a 2-match losing streak. NEC on a 3-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (FC Groningen 1.4, NEC 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — FC Groningen 0W, 2D, NEC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 2-1, 6-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.