| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1MODE | 13.0% | 7.68 | ||
| 1–0 | 11.5% | 8.69 | ||
| 0–1 | 10.3% | 9.74 | ||
| 0–0 | 9.1% | 11.03 | ||
| 2–1 | 8.3% | 12.10 | ||
| 1–2 | 7.4% | 13.56 | ||
| 2–0 | 7.3% | 13.70 | ||
| 0–2 | 5.8% | 17.21 |
SBV Excelsior scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 16.3% | 19.2% | -15% | 6.12 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 20.7% | 17.0% | +22% | 4.83 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 13.8% | 16.0% | -14% | 7.23 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 16.8% | 14.2% | +19% | 5.95 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SBV Excelsior 47.7% · Draw 25.3% · FC Volendam 27.1% Why SBV Excelsior is favoured SBV Excelsior's Elo (1510) is +25 over FC Volendam (1485); low confidence. Recent: SBV Excelsior 2W-2D-6L · FC Volendam 3W-1D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SBV Excelsior -0.1, FC Volendam -0.6. Form depth SBV Excelsior: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). FC Volendam: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). SBV Excelsior on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (SBV Excelsior 1.5, FC Volendam 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — SBV Excelsior 0W, 2D, FC Volendam 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 4-0, 3-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.