SBV Excelsior scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SBV Excelsior 47.7% · Draw 25.3% · FC Volendam 27.1% Why SBV Excelsior is favoured SBV Excelsior's Elo (1510) is +25 over FC Volendam (1485); low confidence. Recent: SBV Excelsior 2W-2D-6L · FC Volendam 3W-1D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SBV Excelsior -0.1, FC Volendam -0.6. Form depth SBV Excelsior: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). FC Volendam: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). SBV Excelsior on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (SBV Excelsior 1.5, FC Volendam 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — SBV Excelsior 0W, 2D, FC Volendam 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 4-0, 3-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.