| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–1MODE | 8.3% | 12.05 | ||
| 1–1 | 7.4% | 13.60 | ||
| 2–2 | 7.1% | 14.02 | ||
| 1–2 | 6.3% | 15.83 | ||
| 3–1 | 6.2% | 16.01 | ||
| 3–2 | 5.4% | 18.62 | ||
| 2–0 | 4.8% | 20.71 | ||
| 1–0 | 4.3% | 23.39 |
Fortuna Sittard scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 33.9% | 36.7% | -8% | 2.95 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 40.8% | 37.9% | +8% | 2.45 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 21.1% | 21.8% | -4% | 4.74 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 23.7% | 22.6% | +5% | 4.22 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fortuna Sittard 46.3% · Draw 25.3% · PEC Zwolle 28.4% Why Fortuna Sittard is favoured PEC Zwolle's Elo (1515) is +25 over Fortuna Sittard (1490); low confidence. Recent: Fortuna Sittard 3W-1D-6L · PEC Zwolle 2W-5D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Fortuna Sittard -0.8, PEC Zwolle -1.0. Form depth Fortuna Sittard: avg 1.3 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). PEC Zwolle: avg 1.1 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Fortuna Sittard on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Fortuna Sittard 1.7, PEC Zwolle 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Fortuna Sittard 0W, 2D, PEC Zwolle 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 1-4, 3-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.