Fortuna Sittard scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fortuna Sittard 46.3% · Draw 25.3% · PEC Zwolle 28.4% Why Fortuna Sittard is favoured PEC Zwolle's Elo (1515) is +25 over Fortuna Sittard (1490); low confidence. Recent: Fortuna Sittard 3W-1D-6L · PEC Zwolle 2W-5D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Fortuna Sittard -0.8, PEC Zwolle -1.0. Form depth Fortuna Sittard: avg 1.3 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). PEC Zwolle: avg 1.1 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Fortuna Sittard on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Fortuna Sittard 1.7, PEC Zwolle 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Fortuna Sittard 0W, 2D, PEC Zwolle 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 1-4, 3-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.