| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–0MODE | 29.4% | 3.40 | ||
| 1–0 | 28.0% | 3.57 | ||
| 2–0 | 13.3% | 7.52 | ||
| 0–1 | 8.0% | 12.47 | ||
| 1–1 | 7.6% | 13.13 | ||
| 3–0 | 4.2% | 23.73 | ||
| 2–1 | 3.6% | 27.62 | ||
| 3–1 | 1.1% | 87.18 |
Colombia scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 5.3% | 7.6% | -30% | 18.85 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 10.7% | 6.5% | +65% | 9.31 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 1.2% | 1.5% | -22% | 84.26 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1% | 77.34 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Colombia 53.3% · Draw 25.3% · Ghana 21.4% Why Colombia is favoured Colombia's Elo (1525) is +25 over Ghana (1500); low confidence. Recent: Colombia 2W-1D-0L · Ghana 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Colombia +1.0, Ghana +0.0. Form depth Colombia: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). Ghana: avg 0.7 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~1.5 total goals (Colombia 1.0, Ghana 0.5) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.