| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4MODE | 8.4% | 11.90 | ||
| 0–4 | 8.2% | 12.18 | ||
| 1–5 | 7.6% | 13.23 | ||
| 1–3 | 7.5% | 13.39 | ||
| 0–5 | 7.4% | 13.53 | ||
| 0–3 | 7.3% | 13.70 | ||
| 1–6 | 5.7% | 17.64 | ||
| 0–6 | 5.5% | 18.04 |
Paraguay scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 3.3% | 2.6% | +25% | 30.32 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 3.4% | 3.8% | -10% | 29.31 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 53.4% | 56.3% | -5% | 1.87 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 81.8% | 81.1% | +1% | 1.22 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Paraguay 36.8% · Draw 24.0% · France 39.3% Why France is favoured France's Elo (1569) is +67 over Paraguay (1502); low confidence. Recent: Paraguay 2W-1D-1L · France 4W-0D-0L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Paraguay -0.3, France +2.8. Form depth Paraguay: avg 1.8 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 2/3 on the road). France: avg 3.3 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (3/3 at home, 1/1 on the road). France on a 4-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.8 total goals (Paraguay 1.1, France 2.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context Paraguay has 4 more days of rest (Paraguay 21d, France 17d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.