| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0MODE | 21.7% | 4.61 | ||
| 2–0 | 20.6% | 4.85 | ||
| 3–0 | 13.1% | 7.65 | ||
| 0–0 | 11.4% | 8.75 | ||
| 4–0 | 6.2% | 16.09 | ||
| 1–1 | 5.9% | 16.92 | ||
| 2–1 | 5.6% | 17.80 | ||
| 3–1 | 3.6% | 28.10 |
Argentina scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 12.6% | 15.7% | -20% | 7.95 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 35.0% | 28.6% | +22% | 2.86 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 1.0% | 0.9% | +4% | 104.13 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 1.0% | 1.7% | -40% | 99.85 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Argentina 56.9% · Draw 24.6% · Cape Verde Islands 18.5% Why Argentina is favoured Argentina's Elo (1547) is +48 over Cape Verde Islands (1499); low confidence. Recent: Argentina 3W-0D-0L · Cape Verde Islands 0W-3D-0L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Argentina +2.3, Cape Verde Islands +0.0. Form depth Argentina: avg 2.7 goals scored, 0.3 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). Cape Verde Islands: avg 0.7 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Argentina on a 3-match winning streak. Cape Verde Islands on a 3-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.2 total goals (Argentina 1.7, Cape Verde Islands 0.5) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context Cape Verde Islands has 1 more day of rest (Argentina 16d, Cape Verde Islands 17d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.