| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–0MODE | 11.9% | 8.44 | ||
| 3–0 | 11.7% | 8.54 | ||
| 4–0 | 8.7% | 11.52 | ||
| 2–1 | 8.1% | 12.39 | ||
| 1–0 | 8.0% | 12.50 | ||
| 3–1 | 8.0% | 12.54 | ||
| 4–1 | 5.9% | 16.93 | ||
| 1–1 | 5.4% | 18.37 |
Portugal scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 34.6% | 38.6% | -10% | 2.89 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 62.7% | 58.2% | +8% | 1.60 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 3.2% | 2.7% | +18% | 30.93 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 3.4% | 4.1% | -18% | 29.39 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Portugal finished second in Group K, securing draws against DR Congo and Colombia, alongside a dominant 5-0 victory over Uzbekistan. Despite possessing individual quality, the team has struggled to find collective consistency in their performances.
Lineup: Expected starting XI: Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, Joao Neves; Neto, Fernandes, Felix; Ronaldo (4-2-3-1).
Croatia advanced to the knockout stage by finishing second in Group L, recovering from an opening 4-2 defeat to England with consecutive victories over Panama and Ghana. They are known for their resilience and experienced squad.
Lineup: Expected starting XI: Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Pongracic, Gvardiol; Sucic, Modric, Kovacic; Baturina, Budimir, Perisic.
“Portugal and Croatia set for a closely contested World Cup Last 32 clash, with both teams aiming to overcome inconsistencies.”
Model probabilities Portugal 51.3% · Draw 25.4% · Croatia 23.2% Why Portugal is favoured Portugal's Elo (1524) is +19 over Croatia (1506); low confidence. Recent: Portugal 1W-2D-0L · Croatia 2W-0D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Portugal +1.7, Croatia +0.0. Form depth Portugal: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Croatia: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). Croatia on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Portugal 1.8, Croatia 1.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Portugal 0W, 1D, Croatia 0W (draws are common). Context Portugal has 1 more day of rest (Portugal 15d, Croatia 14d). News context Portugal and Croatia set for a closely contested World Cup Last 32 clash, with both teams aiming to overcome inconsistencies. Portugal: Portugal finished second in Group K, securing draws against DR Congo and Colombia, alongside a dominant 5-0 victory over Uzbekistan. Despite possessing individual quality, the team has struggled to find collective consistency in their performances. Croatia: Croatia advanced to the knockout stage by finishing second in Group L, recovering from an opening 4-2 defeat to England with consecutive victories over Panama and Ghana. They are known for their resilience and experienced squad. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.