Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 19.5% · fair market: 21.3% · edge: -8.7%
Model probabilities Elise Mertens 19.5% · Iga Swiatek 80.5% Why Iga Swiatek is favoured Iga Swiatek's Elo (1925) is +220 over Elise Mertens (1705); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 14.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 19.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.