Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 44.8% · fair market: 43.7% · edge: +2.6%
Model probabilities Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 44.8% · Lorenzo Sonego 55.2% Why Lorenzo Sonego is favoured Lorenzo Sonego's Elo (1561) is +21 over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (1540); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 43.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 44.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.