Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ben Shelton
To win
+$5.40
Total payout
$25.40
Joint prob
81.6%
Combined odds
1.27
Fair odds
1.23
Edge
+3.7%
Expected value: +$0.73 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.73 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.6% · fair market: 70.6% · edge: +15.6%
Model probabilities Jenson Brooksby 18.4% · Ben Shelton 81.6% Why Ben Shelton is favoured Ben Shelton's Elo (1732) is +170 over Jenson Brooksby (1562); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 81.6% vs market 70.6% (edge +15.6%, suggested Kelly +13.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.