Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Holger Rune
To win
+$9.80
Total payout
$29.80
Joint prob
80.8%
Combined odds
1.49
Fair odds
1.24
Edge
+20.3%
Expected value: +$4.07 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.07 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 80.8% · fair market: 65.1% · edge: +24.0%
Model probabilities Holger Rune 80.8% · Daniel Altmaier 19.2% Why Holger Rune is favoured Holger Rune's Elo (1694) is +226 over Daniel Altmaier (1468); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 85.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 80.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 80.8% vs market 65.1% (edge +24.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.