Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Valentin Royer
To win
+$35.60
Total payout
$55.60
Joint prob
38.5%
Combined odds
2.78
Fair odds
2.60
Edge
+7.0%
Expected value: +$1.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 38.5% · fair market: 35.0% · edge: +9.9%
Model probabilities Pablo Carreno Busta 61.5% · Valentin Royer 38.5% +EV vs market away: model 38.5% vs market 35.0% (edge +9.9%, suggested Kelly +4.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.