Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Janice Tjen
To win
+$95.60
Total payout
$115.60
Joint prob
21.0%
Combined odds
5.78
Fair odds
4.77
Edge
+21.2%
Expected value: +$4.24 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.24 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 21.0% · fair market: 16.8% · edge: +24.6%
Model probabilities Janice Tjen 21.0% · Mirra Andreeva 79.0% Why Mirra Andreeva is favoured Mirra Andreeva's Elo (1794) is +288 over Janice Tjen (1506); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 10.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 21.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 21.0% vs market 16.8% (edge +24.6%, suggested Kelly +4.4% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.