Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jakub Mensik
To win
+$8.20
Total payout
$28.20
Joint prob
87.3%
Combined odds
1.41
Fair odds
1.15
Edge
+23.1%
Expected value: +$4.62 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.62 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 87.3% · fair market: 66.0% · edge: +32.2%
Model probabilities Jacob Fearnley 12.7% · Jakub Mensik 87.3% Why Jakub Mensik is favoured Jakub Mensik's Elo (1715) is +247 over Jacob Fearnley (1467); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 87.3% vs market 66.0% (edge +32.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.