Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Novak Djokovic
To win
+$10.80
Total payout
$30.80
Joint prob
85.4%
Combined odds
1.54
Fair odds
1.17
Edge
+31.5%
Expected value: +$6.30 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.30 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 85.4% · fair market: 62.8% · edge: +36.0%
Model probabilities Novak Djokovic 85.4% · Hubert Hurkacz 14.6% Why Novak Djokovic is favoured Novak Djokovic's Elo (1916) is +302 over Hubert Hurkacz (1614); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 90.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 85.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 85.4% vs market 62.8% (edge +36.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.