Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Thiago Agustin Tirante
To win
+$14.00
Total payout
$34.00
Joint prob
68.5%
Combined odds
1.70
Fair odds
1.46
Edge
+16.4%
Expected value: +$3.28 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.28 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.5% · fair market: 57.2% · edge: +19.7%
Model probabilities Thiago Agustin Tirante 68.5% · Hamad Medjedovic 31.5% Why Thiago Agustin Tirante is favoured Thiago Agustin Tirante's Elo (1609) is +94 over Hamad Medjedovic (1515); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 72.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 68.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 68.5% vs market 57.2% (edge +19.7%, suggested Kelly +23.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.