Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Anna Kalinskaya
To win
+$10.00
Total payout
$30.00
Joint prob
74.4%
Combined odds
1.50
Fair odds
1.34
Edge
+11.6%
Expected value: +$2.31 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.31 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.4% · fair market: 65.1% · edge: +14.2%
Model probabilities Xinyu Wang 25.6% · Anna Kalinskaya 74.4% Why Anna Kalinskaya is favoured Anna Kalinskaya's Elo (1713) is +195 over Xinyu Wang (1519); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 16.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 74.4% vs market 65.1% (edge +14.2%, suggested Kelly +23.1% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.