Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Andrea Lazaro Garcia
To win
+$56.00
Total payout
$76.00
Joint prob
29.1%
Combined odds
3.80
Fair odds
3.44
Edge
+10.5%
Expected value: +$2.09 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.09 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 29.1% · fair market: 25.6% · edge: +13.4%
Model probabilities Sonay Kartal 70.9% · Andrea Lazaro Garcia 29.1% Calibration Raw model: 78.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 70.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 29.1% vs market 25.6% (edge +13.4%, suggested Kelly +3.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.