Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.7% · fair market: 68.1% · edge: +0.9%
Model probabilities Jasmine Paolini 68.7% · Lucrezia Stefanini 31.3% Why Jasmine Paolini is favoured Jasmine Paolini's Elo (1695) is +264 over Lucrezia Stefanini (1431); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 88.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 68.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.