Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Dane Sweeny
To win
+$271.80
Total payout
$291.80
Joint prob
23.8%
Combined odds
14.59
Fair odds
4.21
Edge
+246.5%
Expected value: +$49.30 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$49.30 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 23.8% · fair market: 6.7% · edge: +256.9%
Model probabilities Dane Sweeny 23.8% · Lorenzo Musetti 76.2% Why Lorenzo Musetti is favoured Lorenzo Musetti's Elo (1723) is +230 over Dane Sweeny (1493); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 13.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 23.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 23.8% vs market 6.7% (edge +257.0%, suggested Kelly +18.1% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.