Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Valentin Vacherot
To win
+$11.20
Total payout
$31.20
Joint prob
85.1%
Combined odds
1.56
Fair odds
1.18
Edge
+32.8%
Expected value: +$6.55 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.55 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 85.1% · fair market: 62.1% · edge: +37.0%
Model probabilities Valentin Vacherot 85.1% · Mariano Navone 14.9% Why Valentin Vacherot is favoured Valentin Vacherot's Elo (1668) is +214 over Mariano Navone (1454); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 85.1% vs market 62.1% (edge +37.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.