Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Naomi Osaka
To win
+$6.20
Total payout
$26.20
Joint prob
76.4%
Combined odds
1.31
Fair odds
1.31
Edge
+0.1%
Expected value: +$0.01 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.01 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 76.4% · fair market: 72.2% · edge: +5.8%
Model probabilities Sara Bejlek 23.6% · Naomi Osaka 76.4% Why Naomi Osaka is favoured Naomi Osaka's Elo (1765) is +149 over Sara Bejlek (1617); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 20.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 23.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 76.4% vs market 72.2% (edge +5.8%, suggested Kelly +0.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.