Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Andrey Rublev
To win
+$14.20
Total payout
$34.20
Joint prob
64.5%
Combined odds
1.71
Fair odds
1.55
Edge
+10.3%
Expected value: +$2.06 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.06 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.5% · fair market: 57.1% · edge: +12.9%
Model probabilities Andrey Rublev 64.5% · Roman Safiullin 35.5% Why Andrey Rublev is favoured Andrey Rublev's Elo (1641) is +84 over Roman Safiullin (1557); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 71.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 64.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 64.5% vs market 57.1% (edge +12.9%, suggested Kelly +14.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.