Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elena Rybakina
To win
+$23.40
Total payout
$43.40
Joint prob
70.6%
Combined odds
2.17
Fair odds
1.42
Edge
+53.2%
Expected value: +$10.64 on a $20 stake.
Coco Gauff advanced to the semifinals of the WTA Canadian Open via a walkover on August 11, 2026, due to Belinda Bencic's hip injury, granting Gauff extra rest. Elena Rybakina, however, played a demanding three-set quarterfinal match against Naomi Osaka on the same day, winning after a comeback from a set and a break down. There are no integrity flags or new morale issues reported for either player in the last 14 days.
Coco Gauff received a walkover in her quarterfinal match on August 11, 2026, giving her additional rest and recovery time before the semifinal. She has not dropped a set in her matches leading up to the quarterfinals.
Elena Rybakina played a tough, three-set quarterfinal match against Naomi Osaka on August 11, 2026, which she won after a significant comeback. This match lasted over two and a half hours and required her to save multiple break points in the deciding set.
Expected value: +$10.64 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.6% · fair market: 45.1% · edge: +56.7%
Coco Gauff has advanced to the semifinals of the WTA Canadian Open without dropping a set in her matches, benefiting from a walkover in the quarterfinals. She appears to be in strong form and confident heading into the next round.
Lineup: Expected to start in the semifinal match.
Elena Rybakina has reached the semifinals of the WTA Canadian Open after a resilient comeback victory in her quarterfinal match. Despite some early tournament struggles with unforced errors, she has demonstrated her fighting spirit and ability to win tough matches.
Lineup: Expected to start in the semifinal match.
“Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina set for WTA Canadian Open semifinal clash, both showing strong form in Toronto.”
Model probabilities Coco Gauff 29.4% · Elena Rybakina 70.6% Why Elena Rybakina is favoured Elena Rybakina's Elo (1976) is +81 over Coco Gauff (1895); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 70.6% vs market 45.1% (edge +56.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). News context Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina set for WTA Canadian Open semifinal clash, both showing strong form in Toronto. Coco Gauff: Coco Gauff has advanced to the semifinals of the WTA Canadian Open without dropping a set in her matches, benefiting from a walkover in the quarterfinals. She appears to be in strong form and confident heading into the next round. Elena Rybakina: Elena Rybakina has reached the semifinals of the WTA Canadian Open after a resilient comeback victory in her quarterfinal match. Despite some early tournament struggles with unforced errors, she has demonstrated her fighting spirit and ability to win tough matches.