No material integrity, morale, or squad-news flags found in the last 14 days.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 34.3% · fair market: 36.0% · edge: -4.7%
Model probabilities Nadia Podoroska 34.3% · Ella Seidel 65.7% Why Ella Seidel is favoured Ella Seidel's Elo (1458) is +30 over Nadia Podoroska (1427); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 41.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 34.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.