Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lucrezia Stefanini
To win
+$66.80
Total payout
$86.80
Joint prob
42.8%
Combined odds
4.34
Fair odds
2.34
Edge
+85.9%
Expected value: +$17.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$17.17 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 42.8% · fair market: 22.4% · edge: +91.5%
Model probabilities Marie Bouzkova 57.2% · Lucrezia Stefanini 42.8% Why Marie Bouzkova is favoured Marie Bouzkova's Elo (1640) is +201 over Lucrezia Stefanini (1439); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 84.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 57.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 42.8% vs market 22.4% (edge +91.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.