Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maria Camila Osorio Serrano
To win
+$25.20
Total payout
$45.20
Joint prob
46.3%
Combined odds
2.26
Fair odds
2.16
Edge
+4.6%
Expected value: +$0.92 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.92 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.3% · fair market: 42.8% · edge: +8.2%
Model probabilities Taylor Townsend 53.7% · Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 46.3% Why Taylor Townsend is favoured Taylor Townsend's Elo (1652) is +150 over Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (1502); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 79.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 46.3% vs market 42.8% (edge +8.2%, suggested Kelly +3.6% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.