Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Flavio Cobolli
To win
+$10.20
Total payout
$30.20
Joint prob
70.5%
Combined odds
1.51
Fair odds
1.42
Edge
+6.4%
Expected value: +$1.28 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.28 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.5% · fair market: 64.4% · edge: +9.4%
Model probabilities Adrian Mannarino 29.5% · Flavio Cobolli 70.5% Why Flavio Cobolli is favoured Flavio Cobolli's Elo (1621) is +107 over Adrian Mannarino (1514); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 25.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 29.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 70.5% vs market 64.4% (edge +9.4%, suggested Kelly +12.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.