Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tatjana Maria
To win
+$58.80
Total payout
$78.80
Joint prob
38.2%
Combined odds
3.94
Fair odds
2.62
Edge
+50.4%
Expected value: +$10.09 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.09 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 38.2% · fair market: 24.5% · edge: +55.7%
Diana Shnaider is currently in strong form, having recently reached the quarter-finals of the Canadian Open and the semi-finals in Washington. She received a first-round bye at the WTA Cincinnati Open.
Lineup: Expected to play in the second round of the WTA Cincinnati Open after receiving a first-round bye.
Tatjana Maria recently secured a win in her opening match at the Cincinnati Open, but her previous tournament saw an early exit. Her season highlight was reaching the final of the Eastbourne Open.
Lineup: Expected to play in the second round of the WTA Cincinnati Open.
“Diana Shnaider enters Cincinnati Open match against Tatjana Maria in strong form, favored to win.”
Model probabilities Diana Shnaider 61.8% · Tatjana Maria 38.2% Why Diana Shnaider is favoured Diana Shnaider's Elo (1681) is +277 over Tatjana Maria (1405); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 89.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 61.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 38.2% vs market 24.5% (edge +55.7%, suggested Kelly +17.2% of bankroll). News context Diana Shnaider enters Cincinnati Open match against Tatjana Maria in strong form, favored to win. Diana Shnaider: Diana Shnaider is currently in strong form, having recently reached the quarter-finals of the Canadian Open and the semi-finals in Washington. She received a first-round bye at the WTA Cincinnati Open. Tatjana Maria: Tatjana Maria recently secured a win in her opening match at the Cincinnati Open, but her previous tournament saw an early exit. Her season highlight was reaching the final of the Eastbourne Open.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.