Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Yannick Hanfmann
To win
+$29.20
Total payout
$49.20
Joint prob
60.6%
Combined odds
2.46
Fair odds
1.65
Edge
+49.1%
Expected value: +$9.81 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.81 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.6% · fair market: 39.6% · edge: +53.2%
Model probabilities Yannick Hanfmann 60.6% · Kamil Majchrzak 39.4% Why Yannick Hanfmann is favoured Yannick Hanfmann's Elo (1593) is +47 over Kamil Majchrzak (1545); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 63.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 60.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 60.6% vs market 39.6% (edge +53.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.