Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 25.3% · fair market: 25.3% · edge: -0.0%
Model probabilities Ann Li 25.3% · Linda Noskova 74.7% Why Linda Noskova is favoured Linda Noskova's Elo (1777) is +200 over Ann Li (1577); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 15.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.