Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Hubert Hurkacz
To win
+$12.00
Total payout
$32.00
Joint prob
65.4%
Combined odds
1.60
Fair odds
1.53
Edge
+4.7%
Expected value: +$0.93 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.93 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.4% · fair market: 60.7% · edge: +7.8%
Model probabilities Hubert Hurkacz 65.4% · Marcos Giron 34.6% Why Hubert Hurkacz is favoured Hubert Hurkacz's Elo (1590) is +56 over Marcos Giron (1534); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 65.4% vs market 60.7% (edge +7.8%, suggested Kelly +7.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.