Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Nicolas Mejia
To win
+$32.00
Total payout
$52.00
Joint prob
53.6%
Combined odds
2.60
Fair odds
1.87
Edge
+39.3%
Expected value: +$7.87 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.87 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.6% · fair market: 37.2% · edge: +44.1%
Model probabilities Adam Walton 46.4% · Nicolas Mejia 53.6% Why Nicolas Mejia is favoured Adam Walton's Elo (1471) is +66 over Nicolas Mejia (1405); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 67.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 53.6% vs market 37.2% (edge +44.1%, suggested Kelly +24.6% of bankroll).