Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sloane Stephens
To win
+$114.00
Total payout
$134.00
Joint prob
26.0%
Combined odds
6.70
Fair odds
3.84
Edge
+74.4%
Expected value: +$14.89 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$14.89 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 26.0% · fair market: 14.4% · edge: +80.4%
Model probabilities Marta Kostyuk 74.0% · Sloane Stephens 26.0% Why Marta Kostyuk is favoured Marta Kostyuk's Elo (1798) is +356 over Sloane Stephens (1441); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 92.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 74.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 26.0% vs market 14.4% (edge +80.4%, suggested Kelly +13.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.