Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Christopher O'Connell
To win
+$14.20
Total payout
$34.20
Joint prob
69.2%
Combined odds
1.71
Fair odds
1.44
Edge
+18.4%
Expected value: +$3.67 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.67 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.2% · fair market: 56.7% · edge: +22.0%
Model probabilities James Duckworth 30.8% · Christopher O'Connell 69.2% +EV vs market away: model 69.2% vs market 56.7% (edge +22.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).