Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Xiyu Wang
To win
+$68.20
Total payout
$88.20
Joint prob
31.6%
Combined odds
4.41
Fair odds
3.16
Edge
+39.6%
Expected value: +$7.91 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.91 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 31.6% · fair market: 22.1% · edge: +43.3%
Model probabilities Madison Keys 68.4% · Xiyu Wang 31.6% Why Madison Keys is favoured Madison Keys's Elo (1772) is +258 over Xiyu Wang (1514); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 87.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 68.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 31.6% vs market 22.1% (edge +43.3%, suggested Kelly +11.6% of bankroll).